Most of the time jumping to conclusions is harmless, but it is a problem when jumping to conclusions becomes the default, especially in relation to decisions made about complex social and political issues, where more fine-grained reasoning is typically required.
Jumping To Conclusions: Why It Happens, How To Stop It
For social psychologist Irving Janis, Pearl Harbor was a perfect example of what he called “groupthink” in a 1971 article in Psychology Today. For Janis, groupthink was at the heart of some of the worst disasters and poorest decisions in world history, including Pearl Harbor. Today groupthink continues to help explain many large-scale blunders and problems, from the 2008 financial crisis to social media pile-on.
